A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
