Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
